Monday, January 2, 2012
The Insincere Economic Debate
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Running on Empty
And I'll tell you why. If somebody asks me for $700 Billion they better be able to articulate to me why they need it, what they are going to do with it, how they are going to pay it back, and (very importantly) why they are asking ME.
I have been paying as much attention to this fiasco as any other average citizen, and I have not heard a rational explanation of why this . . . whatever it is . . . is necessary.
No explanation = no money.
What I am able to glean is that over the past several years our financial system has veered into excessive risk taking through 2 channels, i) lowering standards for evaluating borrower's creditworthiness, and ii) lenders using imprudently high leverage to increase profits. So, now that the chickens have come home to roost (ha ha), we are seeing the 2 inevitable results, i) bad borrowers defaulting on their loans, and ii) over-leveraged lenders unable to withstand rising defaults on their portfolios because of their paper thin balance sheets.
I know it's more complicated than that. But I'm not a PhD and I don't have the time, or the ability, to spend trying to educate myself now when Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are screaming that they need this money like yesterday. The hurry! hurry! hurry! of it all reminds me of being on a sales tour at a timeshare resort. So my instinct is to keep my wallet in my pants. (That's good advice generally, btw.)
Well, I found a smart guy who has articulated my feelings on the matter, Jeffrey A. Miron, an economist at Harvard. He explains why he's against the Bail Out in a short and easily readable opinion piece HERE at CNN.com.
NO BAIL OUT!!!
Meanwhile, back on Main Street:
Wall Street may be out of money, but Atlanta is out of gas.
There is no gas here. All of the gas stations have plastic bags over the handles of their pumps to signal that they are empty. Why? Because Texas had a big storm. Sighhhhhhh. Put two oil geniuses in the White House and what do we get? No redundancy in our vital infrastructure. Rumor is that the Port Arthur refinery is still not working because there is no electrical power to it. Can that be true? A refinery that doesn't have it's own generators? Talk about poor defense planning.
In the category of counting the glass half full, having no gas has gotten people to stop complaining about how much it costs once they are able to find some.
Meantime,
Of course, we Georgians are still running out of drinking water, but we've suspended our fretting about that to deal with this more imminent crisis of not being able to get to the grocery store.
Lake Lanier - Atlanta's Water Supply
I can't wait for the weekend.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Oh Nooooooo!
It looks like something really crazy could happen in the stock markets today. And it won't be good. The investment bank Bear Stearns is selling itself to JP Morgan Chase for about $250 million, which is soooo cheap I am wondering if it's a typo. Bear, as those in the know like to call it ( but not for long), was/is big into the MBS, or mortgage backed securities, business, which has totally tanked. And now Bear has too.
I don't know if bloggers have any disclosure requirements, but I bought some JP Morgan stock last month. Just a little. But I'm feeling pretty smart about it today.
So anyway, it looks like the financial markets could have a total meltdown today, which, while exciting, could really suck for everybody. Our intrepid Fed Chairman Ben Benanke, who I am liking more and more, is acting quickly and with a great deal of inventiveness. Banker Ben is an academic at heart, and is a poor public speaker. His voice shakes and he frequently seems as though he is about to fall into stuttering. But Hats Off to Banker Ben! He has been coming up with new programs so fast to keep our whole credit economy house of cards from crashing down that it really is amazing. He came up with a new credit facility for investment banks, to stop any more from failing, a la Bear, over the weekend! I for one didn't do squat this weekend, but Ben saved our economy. AND, nobody even realized he was doing it.
Amazing. I am very very impressed.
He did something similar for regular banks in the mortgage lending business a few weeks ago. I'm fuzzy on the details, because I really don't know that much about banking. But it seems clear that Ben is doing everything he can to bring order to an otherwise chaotic situation.
Listening to the business pundits in this era is rather surreal. Their consensus is that the market has to take a huge price drop, not necessarily to get prices in line with actual values, but rather as some sort of psychological acceptance of the fact that investors and/or investment houses have let the market become irrational, and they need to show (someone) that they have resigned themselves to getting things back to some semblance of reality.
The other thing that the pundits are hoping for is that some folks with actual money might come in and buy up all of this wreckage at bargain prices so that we can get this mess behind us. The key is people with actual money, not other people's money (OPM). People with actual money are relatively free of the restrictions on what they can buy, and so can buy stuff that temporarily looks like garbage, but really has intrinsic value, like mortgages. This is actually what will most likely happen. The real question is whether it will happen quickly enough to save us all from further economic decline. Doubt it!
The real underlying weakness here is that we have evolved into a consumer based economy. Since almost every American can afford basic necessities (do you know anyone without a car, cell phone, and air conditioning?), this means that our economy is based on each of us buying a bunch of junk, on a continuing basis. This weekend I spent most of my money on fast food, gas to drive around for no real reason at $3.79 at gallon, movie tickets, and some Nikes (made in Vietnam.) None of my money went for, say, a solar powered passenger train to get me around the Atlanta metro area. But it sure would be cool if we, as the Greatest Nation In History, could build something like that. Very ironically, Michael Dukakis sort of predicted this in 1988 when he challenged George Bush the Elder on what kind of jobs a republican economy would produce. Duke said that under a Bush economy having jobs would mean that we would all end up making each other lunch.
Hah! Prescience.
Ben cannot solve that. How do we change our economy so it builds lasting value and a great civilization? Not through consumerism. It is an underlying problem that would require a national will to greatness. But I just don't see that we have any such will. We have a pretend will to greatness where we wage little wars to feel macho, but refuse to balance our country's checkbook, or clean up our own water and air. That is not a great nation. That is a nation of spoiled children.
Well, off to work. Maybe I'll pick up a croissanwich on the way in.








